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Social Security’s projected COLA is significantly higher than in 2026

But it’s slightly lower than last month’s estimate because of easing inflation

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Mark Huffman
Reporter

Mark Huffman has covered consumer issues since 2004, with a special focus on protecting and empowering older adults. A former news correspondent for the Associated Press Radio Network, Westwood One, and ConsumerAffairs, Mark brings decades of journalistic experience to RetirementLiving.com. He is passionate about giving consumers a voice and helping them make informed decisions. Mark has also created educational content, including Senior Scam Alert, a video resource designed to help seniors recognize and avoid fraud. He holds a B.A. from the University of Kentucky and lives with his family in Richmond, Virginia.

Updated:

key insights:

  • The Senior Citizens League projects a 3.6% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, down from its 3.8% estimate in July.
  • A 3.6% adjustment would add about $69.75 to the average monthly benefit used in the group’s analysis, raising it from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28.
  • The estimate remains preliminary, with August and September inflation figures still to be included before the official adjustment is announced in October.

Social Security recipients got a 2.8% cost of living adjustment this year because of rising inflation, but the latest estimate from a seniors group suggests the 2027 COLA could be significantly higher.

The Senior Citizens League projects a 3.6% increase in benefits, based on July’s inflation data. However, two months of inflation data remain before the final figure is determined.

If a 3.6% adjustment took effect using the average benefit cited by the group, monthly payments would rise by approximately $69.75, from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28. The actual increase for each recipient would depend on the person’s current benefit.

The forecast was updated after the release of July inflation figures, the first of three months used in calculating the annual Social Security adjustment. The official COLA is based on the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, during July, August, and September, compared with the corresponding average from the previous year.

August and September prices are key

Because data for August and September are not yet available, the 3.6% figure remains subject to change. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official 2027 adjustment in October, with higher payments beginning in January.

The Senior Citizens League produces a new forecast each month using a statistical model that incorporates consumer prices, interest rates, and the national unemployment rate. Its estimates change as economic conditions and new inflation data emerge.

For beneficiaries, a larger COLA can help offset rising household expenses, but it does not necessarily translate into an equivalent improvement in purchasing power. Older Americans often devote a substantial share of their income to housing, healthcare, insurance, utilities, and food. Increases in Medicare premiums can also absorb part of the additional Social Security income received by beneficiaries enrolled in the program.