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The projected Social Security COLA ticked higher this month

But there are growing concerns about the accuracy of the government’s inflation data

Updated:

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By:
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Mark Huffman
Reporter

Mark Huffman has covered consumer issues since 2004, with a special focus on protecting and empowering older adults. A former news correspondent for the Associated Press Radio Network, Westwood One, and ConsumerAffairs, Mark brings decades of journalistic experience to RetirementLiving.com. He is passionate about giving consumers a voice and helping them make informed decisions. Mark has also created educational content, including Senior Scam Alert, a video resource designed to help seniors recognize and avoid fraud. He holds a B.A. from the University of Kentucky and lives with his family in Richmond, Virginia.
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Key Insights

  • 2026 Social Security COLA forecast climbs to 2.5%, marking four consecutive months of increases.
  • Data reliability concerns arise as the Bureau of Labor Statistics faces staffing issues affecting CPI collection.
  • Senior advocacy group warns that faulty inflation data could mean smaller Social Security increases, harming retirees.

It’s only the middle of 2025, but many retirees may be wondering what the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment will be. Based on current inflation trends, it’s likely to be slightly less than last year, although that could change if tariffs significantly increase prices in the months ahead.

The COLA is based on inflation data for July, August and September and is announced in October. The Senior Citizens League has revised its forecast for the 2026 Social Security COLA, projecting a 2.5% increase, up from last month’s estimate of 2.4%. It marks the fourth consecutive month of upward revisions, signaling ongoing concerns about inflation’s impact on retirees’ purchasing power.

However, as the projection ticks upward, so too does anxiety about the reliability of the data underpinning these forecasts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the agency responsible for calculating the Consumer Price Index, is reportedly grappling with severe staffing shortages that could compromise the accuracy of the inflation figures used to determine the COLA.

Data collection challenges

Here are some recent challenges: The Wall Street Journal has reported that a hiring freeze at the BLS has forced the CPI program to reduce its sample size of businesses from which it collects price data.

In April, the agency admitted to using a less accurate price estimation method more frequently due to a worker shortage. It also stopped collecting consumer inflation data in three U.S. cities entirely.

According to The Senior Citizens League, these developments could erode public trust in a metric that plays a pivotal role in shaping economic policy—and in determining the financial well-being of millions of Social Security recipients.

“If the government fails to act and the CPI’s data quality begins to erode, it increases the likelihood of the government providing a COLA that doesn’t match inflation,” warned TSCL in its release. “A COLA that comes in under inflation would set seniors back for the rest of their retirement.”

Some seniors already feel left behind

Concerns over inflation’s accuracy aren’t limited to government economists. TSCL’s forthcoming 2025 Senior Survey found that 80% of older Americans believe the actual inflation rate in 2024 exceeded 3%, well above the 2.5% COLA they received for the year. Many seniors suspect the inflation they feel at the grocery store and pharmacy isn’t captured in the government’s official measurements.

“Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward,” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “There’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day.”

The implications of unreliable inflation data stretch well beyond Social Security. The CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), a specific subset of CPI data, serves as the basis for TSCL’s COLA predictions and is widely used in federal policy-making, including interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Seniors got a significant COLA in 2023, with an 8.7% increase in benefits. However, inflation was the highest in decades the previous year. The 2024 COLA, affecting retirees’ current benefits, was 3.2%.

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